Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

As I totally expected, Evofem is taking a beating Monday morning. To reiterate my belief from the beginning, it just needs to extend its current four-day streak to get to the 10 needed to close at or above $1 to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules. Current trend is up, but still all I care about is that buck.

I don’t yet see any 100K+ share blocks, but I expect that to change this afternoon.

Our favorite twitter user @joey88walsh dropped this insight:

Again, not at all asserting he’s part of an illegal short and distort campaign. I do think he’s wrong, though.

ICYW how someone with such a small following could possibly have any impact on a larger level, social sentiment, S-Score, is now a metric available to retail. I find it hard to imagine it’s not part of many automated trading algorithms.

The S-Score is a normalized representation of social media sentiment over a lookback period. The S-Score measures the deviation of changes in sentiment intensity of a given stock. The S-Score answers the question, “Is the conversation on Twitter about a particular stock significantly more positive or negative than normal?” Higher levels of sentiment indicate a stronger reaction. High positive sentiment indicates a security is statistically likely to move higher. High negative sentiment indicates the security is statistically likely to go lower.

https://web.archive.org/web/20210725180913/https://www.fidelity.com/webcontent/ap110398-researchsnapshot-content/16.13/help/Learn_More_About_Social_Sentiment.pdf

The more negativity out there, the more it shows up in this chart.

I expect the tweets to be purged again this evening lol.

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

We are emerging from Day 4 of the 10 needed to close at or above $1 to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules.

I now get google alerts for EVFM and Evofem. Today’s alerts included a GuruFocus post that was just a repost of the press release Evofem Strengthens Phexxi® Intellectual Property with New Composition of Matter Patent From USPTO. I mean the press release is from June 30, but my perspective is that it’s better that more people know about the good stuff Evofem is doing. So wtg, GuruFocus.

As we enter this new week, I expect a massive downward push on the stock price. I also expect the volume to be substantially greater than Friday’s 61m+ shares traded. There’s a real possibility it gets pressed to below $1, which I wouldn’t entirely mind because I have four limit orders to scoop up more shares at prices ranging from just under $1 to $0.86. My average is about $0.88, and I wouldn’t be opposed to averaging up, but I would prefer that bears didn’t gain momentum.

I think at minimum, we’ll see a strong push to keep the stock price out of the money for this Friday’s $1.50 options, and a gamma squeeze may be why the bears are extra trying to protect the stock from hitting $1.50.

Update on twitter user @joey88walsh: He deleted the tweet I’d embedded in Friday’s last post (“$EVFM REJECTED 1.4$ again!! Man this things trash and weak… and even with all that fake hype”). I think it’s so odd that someone just does a daily purge of tweets other than sports, war, and politics posts. And while he has 62 tweets now, I’d be surprised if he hasn’t deleted triple that just in EVFM-related noise. I’m not asserting that the negativity is done in bad faith and just to influence the social sentiment score of Evofem.

The S-Score is a normalized representation of social media sentiment over a lookback period. The S-Score measures the deviation of changes in sentiment intensity of a given stock. The S-Score answers the question, “Is the conversation on Twitter about a particular stock significantly more positive or negative than normal?” Higher levels of sentiment indicate a stronger reaction. High positive sentiment indicates a security is statistically likely to move higher. High negative sentiment indicates the security is statistically likely to go lower.

https://web.archive.org/web/20210725180913/https://www.fidelity.com/webcontent/ap110398-researchsnapshot-content/16.13/help/Learn_More_About_Social_Sentiment.pdf

In unrelated news, if someone were to attempt to employ a short and distort strategy, what would that look like on twitter?

Again, I only called @joey88walsh out because he replied to a tweet of mine with something to the effect of “the shorts run this stock lad,” (also deleted)–wasn’t formatted like tweets generally are within WordPress. After quick investigation, I saw that the doubty tweet had been deleted. I found the rest of what I consider suspicious after the deletion of the other embedded tweet.

Four days down, and six to go. I maintain that if Monday turns out to be Day 5 of the 10, the bears will only press harder. And I see each penny they use to keep the stock price down as another vote of confidence in the prospects for Evofem.

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

We are now through Day 4 of the 10 needed to close at or above $1 to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules. I had expected the bears to go HAM at trying to sink the share price to below $1, and early on, it seemed the push had started.

It was a slow day overall with a lot of barcoding. You know, the thing where the trades between the same upper bound and lower bound values and then looks like a barcode when the candlesticks are plotted over time.

Rather than a stock price stabilization, there were periods where blocks of stock in excess of 100,000 shares were offered a price that looked to protect the stock from hitting $1.50.

Now, when I went to relink to the post from the other day when the price went beyond $1.50, I saw that the embedded tweet from @joey88walsh–who I only called out because he replied to a tweet of mine with something to the effect of “the shorts run this stock lad,” (also deleted)–wasn’t formatted like tweets generally are within WordPress. After quick, investigation, I saw that the doubty tweet had been deleted. But that’s OK because the guy has posted new ones that are just as insightful. Like this one:

Some people don’t like to preserve their wrongness for eternity/posterity. I understand that. On the other hand, I go into depth in these blog posts with my thoughts. If it turns out I’m wrong, I’ll get to reflect on how I got it wrong. And then try to get better. And anyone who reads it later will be like: “Oh this dude was so wrong. What a dummy.”

So far what I’ve written looks pretty good and is supported by what’s transpired.

The barcoding was pretty much all of the last two hours.

In the waning moments of the week, there was the same flurry of activity that t

3:47:26 PM ET: 115,874 shares at a high of $1.33 and a low of $1.32
3:52:44 PM ET: 92,981 shares at a high of $1.33 and a low of $1.32
3:59:35 PM ET: 151,298 shares at a high of $1.33 and a low of $1.315
3:59:41 PM ET: 152,499 shares at a high of $1.335 and a low of $1.3211

The final trade of the day was 173,168 shares at $1.35.

Four days down, six to go. I imagine the bears will push harder the closer it gets to 10 consecutive days of closing at or above $1. If they force it down to below $1, I’ll be ready to scoop up more shares. And I don’t expect it to close below $1 next week.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

As I predicted early in the morning, there is a massive downward push early.

I see this as a continuing sign of running scared.

And it’s cheaper for bears to try to convince those who are uncertain of Evofem’s ability to survive than to borrow on their own and short.

But I don’t see this trend continuing through the end of the day.

Now, all that matters to me is that at the end of the day, the stock price is at or above $1. If that happens today, it’ll be day 4 of the 10 consecutive needed to get Evofem back in compliance with the Nasdaq pricing rules.