The Recession – September 23, 2022

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I so may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

Today the DJIA dropped another 486 points. That’s a lot of points! Earlier it had looked like it would be closer to 1000 points, but a late tempering reduced the losses. Also the new British government decided to cut income taxes, and the pound dropped immediately. Right now sterling is at $1.085, which is well below what the Euro was in 2014 when I went to France. The Euro was about $1.30 then. I know I picked the wrong time to go to Europe, but that’s how that goes. The idea to cut taxes now is crazy in my opinion. Sure, the British economy is in the toilet, but a stimulus right now would add to price inflation rather than coax people out of their hidey holes to start spending again when the economy is frozen. Also by cutting taxes in an ineffective attempt to turn the economy around, it means that tool can’t be used later. I had been writing about how inflation overall will continue as long as oil keeps going up. Well, today oil went down. Devon energy–which I have a stake in–dropped about 9%. Is that a good sign? Maybe! but the VIX went up more than 9%. So the options folks expect the market to go up by a lot in the next 30 days. If you believe that the election cycle is a big part of having a good market, then 30 days from now it must be good for the midterm elections on November 8. (Sidenote: I’m anti-Prop 27 and anti-Prop 26, but more on that another time.) Evofem–and I do own shares of EVFM–was up and down today and ended up closing below 20c/share again. News had come out that they got yet another patent for Phexxi. Of all my positions, TrueCar was the only one that increased on the day. My guess is that it’s the result of hedge funds buying to cover short positions. I don’t know that TRUE is doing anything particularly wonderful in this time, but I don’t mind anything offsetting losses on the day.

Exchange rates per WSJ
USD-Euro: $0.9690 (+1.53%)
USD-GBP: $1.0850 (+3.72%)
USD-CAD: $0.7359 (+0.75%)
USD-NIS: $0.2851 (+0.46%)
Yen-USD: 143.34 (-0.69%)
Won-USD: 1404.86 (-0.51%)

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About raabidfun

I'm a guy living the #raabidfun lifestyle. I figured I would create a blog about crossword puzzles I do. The idea is to do the NYT crossword and the WSJ crossword daily as much as I can. That includes when I don't finish and have clearly failed. They can be difficult. Also I am not an attorney, and any legal analysis in this blog reflects my interpretation, which means it can be flawed and should not be relied upon for use in legal matters (especially against me).

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