Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

As I totally expected, Evofem is taking a beating Monday morning. To reiterate my belief from the beginning, it just needs to extend its current four-day streak to get to the 10 needed to close at or above $1 to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules. Current trend is up, but still all I care about is that buck.

I don’t yet see any 100K+ share blocks, but I expect that to change this afternoon.

Our favorite twitter user @joey88walsh dropped this insight:

Again, not at all asserting he’s part of an illegal short and distort campaign. I do think he’s wrong, though.

ICYW how someone with such a small following could possibly have any impact on a larger level, social sentiment, S-Score, is now a metric available to retail. I find it hard to imagine it’s not part of many automated trading algorithms.

The S-Score is a normalized representation of social media sentiment over a lookback period. The S-Score measures the deviation of changes in sentiment intensity of a given stock. The S-Score answers the question, “Is the conversation on Twitter about a particular stock significantly more positive or negative than normal?” Higher levels of sentiment indicate a stronger reaction. High positive sentiment indicates a security is statistically likely to move higher. High negative sentiment indicates the security is statistically likely to go lower.

https://web.archive.org/web/20210725180913/https://www.fidelity.com/webcontent/ap110398-researchsnapshot-content/16.13/help/Learn_More_About_Social_Sentiment.pdf

The more negativity out there, the more it shows up in this chart.

I expect the tweets to be purged again this evening lol.

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

We are emerging from Day 4 of the 10 needed to close at or above $1 to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules.

I now get google alerts for EVFM and Evofem. Today’s alerts included a GuruFocus post that was just a repost of the press release Evofem Strengthens Phexxi® Intellectual Property with New Composition of Matter Patent From USPTO. I mean the press release is from June 30, but my perspective is that it’s better that more people know about the good stuff Evofem is doing. So wtg, GuruFocus.

As we enter this new week, I expect a massive downward push on the stock price. I also expect the volume to be substantially greater than Friday’s 61m+ shares traded. There’s a real possibility it gets pressed to below $1, which I wouldn’t entirely mind because I have four limit orders to scoop up more shares at prices ranging from just under $1 to $0.86. My average is about $0.88, and I wouldn’t be opposed to averaging up, but I would prefer that bears didn’t gain momentum.

I think at minimum, we’ll see a strong push to keep the stock price out of the money for this Friday’s $1.50 options, and a gamma squeeze may be why the bears are extra trying to protect the stock from hitting $1.50.

Update on twitter user @joey88walsh: He deleted the tweet I’d embedded in Friday’s last post (“$EVFM REJECTED 1.4$ again!! Man this things trash and weak… and even with all that fake hype”). I think it’s so odd that someone just does a daily purge of tweets other than sports, war, and politics posts. And while he has 62 tweets now, I’d be surprised if he hasn’t deleted triple that just in EVFM-related noise. I’m not asserting that the negativity is done in bad faith and just to influence the social sentiment score of Evofem.

The S-Score is a normalized representation of social media sentiment over a lookback period. The S-Score measures the deviation of changes in sentiment intensity of a given stock. The S-Score answers the question, “Is the conversation on Twitter about a particular stock significantly more positive or negative than normal?” Higher levels of sentiment indicate a stronger reaction. High positive sentiment indicates a security is statistically likely to move higher. High negative sentiment indicates the security is statistically likely to go lower.

https://web.archive.org/web/20210725180913/https://www.fidelity.com/webcontent/ap110398-researchsnapshot-content/16.13/help/Learn_More_About_Social_Sentiment.pdf

In unrelated news, if someone were to attempt to employ a short and distort strategy, what would that look like on twitter?

Again, I only called @joey88walsh out because he replied to a tweet of mine with something to the effect of “the shorts run this stock lad,” (also deleted)–wasn’t formatted like tweets generally are within WordPress. After quick investigation, I saw that the doubty tweet had been deleted. I found the rest of what I consider suspicious after the deletion of the other embedded tweet.

Four days down, and six to go. I maintain that if Monday turns out to be Day 5 of the 10, the bears will only press harder. And I see each penny they use to keep the stock price down as another vote of confidence in the prospects for Evofem.

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

We are now through Day 4 of the 10 needed to close at or above $1 to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules. I had expected the bears to go HAM at trying to sink the share price to below $1, and early on, it seemed the push had started.

It was a slow day overall with a lot of barcoding. You know, the thing where the trades between the same upper bound and lower bound values and then looks like a barcode when the candlesticks are plotted over time.

Rather than a stock price stabilization, there were periods where blocks of stock in excess of 100,000 shares were offered a price that looked to protect the stock from hitting $1.50.

Now, when I went to relink to the post from the other day when the price went beyond $1.50, I saw that the embedded tweet from @joey88walsh–who I only called out because he replied to a tweet of mine with something to the effect of “the shorts run this stock lad,” (also deleted)–wasn’t formatted like tweets generally are within WordPress. After quick, investigation, I saw that the doubty tweet had been deleted. But that’s OK because the guy has posted new ones that are just as insightful. Like this one:

Some people don’t like to preserve their wrongness for eternity/posterity. I understand that. On the other hand, I go into depth in these blog posts with my thoughts. If it turns out I’m wrong, I’ll get to reflect on how I got it wrong. And then try to get better. And anyone who reads it later will be like: “Oh this dude was so wrong. What a dummy.”

So far what I’ve written looks pretty good and is supported by what’s transpired.

The barcoding was pretty much all of the last two hours.

In the waning moments of the week, there was the same flurry of activity that t

3:47:26 PM ET: 115,874 shares at a high of $1.33 and a low of $1.32
3:52:44 PM ET: 92,981 shares at a high of $1.33 and a low of $1.32
3:59:35 PM ET: 151,298 shares at a high of $1.33 and a low of $1.315
3:59:41 PM ET: 152,499 shares at a high of $1.335 and a low of $1.3211

The final trade of the day was 173,168 shares at $1.35.

Four days down, six to go. I imagine the bears will push harder the closer it gets to 10 consecutive days of closing at or above $1. If they force it down to below $1, I’ll be ready to scoop up more shares. And I don’t expect it to close below $1 next week.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

As I predicted early in the morning, there is a massive downward push early.

I see this as a continuing sign of running scared.

And it’s cheaper for bears to try to convince those who are uncertain of Evofem’s ability to survive than to borrow on their own and short.

But I don’t see this trend continuing through the end of the day.

Now, all that matters to me is that at the end of the day, the stock price is at or above $1. If that happens today, it’ll be day 4 of the 10 consecutive needed to get Evofem back in compliance with the Nasdaq pricing rules.

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

It’s a little after midnight on the West Coast. The pre-pre-market trading hasn’t yet started.

Yesterday’s close at $1.25 and pretty much meaningless after hours decline of a penny means only one thing to me: It’s above a buck. I just care that it’s at least a buck.

We’re through three days of the 10-in-a-row-at-or-above-$1 needed to be back in compliance with the Nasdaq rules.

My expectation from today is that the bears will go HAM at pushing the stock price down. And a major push to get it under $1. Going into the weekend on a four-day streak is way worse for them than going into the weekend with a no-day-streak is.

Kinda for fun and kinda because if it hits this low, I’m happy to pick up the shares, I put a limit order in at $0.85.

Given on the content I’ve written about Evofem, I have been asked if I am redditor mccharming88. If my writing style is not indicative enough to the contrary, rest assured that I am not redditor mccharming88. All I write are my assumptions and opinions that I base off behaviors, trends, and my own research and experience to complement independently verifiable facts from reputable sources. I do not give investment advice, and I do encourage everyone to raise relevant points that are in conflict with my perspective. Or if there are holes in my knowledge that can be patched if only I knew where to look. If you, reader, identify areas that need improvement, please share in the comments section.

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

There seems to be a fear of $1.50. It could be that closing at $1.50 would trigger a margin call.

But the activity in the final two hours really pushed that price down.

2:44-2:45pm ET there were 2.4 million shares traded with a max price of $1.37 and min price of $1.265. The volume spike was at 2:45:46 with 568,241 shares.

In my view, this is a positive result. Short borrowing fee is still about 200%. It could be that redditors and folks who found Evofem on the twitterverse and panic sell because they think that this guy is right:

I might agree if I hadn’t done any reading into the company–even if I hadn’t published why I think this stock is being manipulated downward. It’s unlikely that I would agree, though, because there is just so much downward push on this stock and so much resistance to that push that I would have felt as I do now: The sentiment in this tweet is absolutely adorable.

As I’ve maintained since the beginning: The number that matters to me is the close price at or above $1. Today qualifies. With the bonus that it can’t be fun to borrow at a higher price.

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

It sure looks like the bears are trying to force this thing down before the West Coast Wakeup. You know, the time when people out here have gotten out of bed and looked to see what’s happened in the world. Today’s high so far is $1.30, which is the highest it’s been since the 1-for-15 reverse split. And it’s now trading at $1.18.

I posted yesterday that I didn’t think that $1.20 would break the bears, and it hasn’t. But the goal I see for this stock to be safe is the 10 days of consecutive closes at or above $1.

With higher prices, it’s getting more expensive to borrow shares. How far will the bears go to limit the price of this stock?

Disclaimer: None of this is investment advice. The logic here may be bad and should not be relied upon. My assumptions may be bad and should not be relied upon. This post reflects my opinion. I may hold positions in securities I write about, and I believe in what I write.

Today marked Day 1 of the 10 consecutive days to regain compliance with Nasdaq’s listing requirements of closing at or above $1.

In the last two minutes of trading, 747,907 shares moved. Despite the downward pressure, it looked unlikely for Evofem to close below $1 today. I did not expect the stock price to dip to $1.06 with two seconds left–with trades at 3:59:58 ET totaling 138,305–and then close at $1.10 when someone bought a 35,748-share chunk. But I’ll take it!

I looked at twitter today and saw people who were gaining interest in Evofem. I agree with excitement about prospects for the company. And I have the view that the bears will not prevail in what I believe to be a concerted attempt to get this stock delisted. Which, as I said this morning, very well could be against the law.

I also saw a headline when googling $EVFM from Defense World: Evofem Biosciences (NASDAQ:EVFM) Share Price Passes Below 50 Day Moving Average of $1.32.

If you hadn’t heard of Defense World, know that I just learned that they exist. Their About Us page says:

Launched in 2003, defenseworld.net has grown into one of the most prominent defence and aerospace news portals in the world. Our focused reportage of defence procurement matters besides the coverage of exhibitions and conferences in the defence sector has attracted and retained readers which include procurement officials, industry executives and other key elements of the defence industry chain.

https://www.defenseworld.net/about-us

So why would this site be writing at about Evofem Biosciences at all? Why a headline that sounds scary? Why can’t they choose between defense and defence?

We knew that the bears wouldn’t go quietly. And I found the headline to be misleading in giving the impression that Evofem is sinking when the stock is up 205% over the last month. Is this an indication of a short-and-distort push? I can’t imagine that that tactic–which is undoubtedly illegal–will really work, given that Evofem makes a non-hormonal birth control gel that’s FDA-approved and ready to go.

I will continue to look out for strangely placed, bad-news-if-you-don’t-know-better pieces about Evofem. I still maintain that what I see as an effort to destroy Evofem is a sign of confidence by the bears that it’s a real threat to break through.

Someone on twitter said something to the effect of smashing $1.20 would ignite the short squeeze. I’m not sure that that’s the number. I just hope that any short squeeze of EVFM results in a long future of self-determination for the company.